Are Sony and Microsoft to follow suit if the Nintendo Switch is successful?
Can and will the two big ones put out a portable version of their current gen consoles?After the successful lunch of the Nintendo Switch it is not out of the question for Sony to do, what they have done a few times in the past - copy Nintendo, in the motion control era it was especially obvious. With Microsoft taking the console performance crown back with the One X and Nintendo dominating the dedicated mobile space lately, Sony is left with one advantage over each competitor. Lager library against Xbox and better performance and library against Nintendo. Ok you got me - two advantages against Nintendo, but the Switch exclusive library is growing incredibly fast, so this feat is fading away with every release. And why not ride the PS4 wave a bit more more by offering it's vast library on a mobile platform? PS4P, anyone?
In the other corner of Xbox, the theory is quite a bit more far fetched, but they have also followed trends in the past. Green team won't be going for it soon, of course, because of the upcoming release of the X and they will need to wait a year or two, but why not go portable if the Switch is extremely successful? Microsoft already has a division that has proven that can deliver powerful portable hardware - the Surface team. They might also need to revitalize the brand later on if they start falling much further behind.
There is a possibility for both companies, there is also a very big argument against for each one: Sony Portable experience wasn't great with the PS Vita and there was never a mobile Xbox in the past.
Let's examine the available tech
Requirements
A mobile console is a bit different than a home one - it's designed with power envelope as the main determining factor in mind. That is probably why Nintendo chose Nvidia for their console - AMD could not offer a decent mobile CPU that would fit in the power requirements for the Switch at the time. Why Nintendo went with the older - less power efficient first generation Tegra chip is still a mystery to me, and a topic for another conversation.Back to the big two. They have to use an APU which means CPU and GPU on the same chip. The X86 architecture as a requirement rules out Intel as they don't provide a good enough graphic solution. It also rules out Nvidia as they don't have a X86 CPU to offer. What would be the best case scenario for them is - PS4 or One S chip, but vastly more power efficient. To break it down - they need 8 CPU cores and between 1.4 and 1.8 tflops of GPU power in 20 to 40 watt range. 8 Gb of Memory and at least 240GB SSD.
So let's start!
The CPU
The fist challenge is the 8 core Jaguar processor - it is based on very old technology and while passable in a console it is impossible to use in a mobile device - it is too power hungry and is produced on an older 28mn tech, while current mobile devices are on 16nm or better tech node with much lower power draw.
( A smaller the tech node gives the same performance for less power, so the less nm the better. )
That's why they would have to go with AMDs latest Ryzen CPUs. They probably can use a 4 Core / 8 Thread CPU massively down-clocked to meet the power envelope instead of the Jaguar cores. Such CPU already exists on the PC - the R5 1400 comes at 3.1GHz. To mach the performance of the weak Jaguar cores you will probably be able to slash the Ryzen cores to 1.0 - 1.3 Ghz, which in turn will probably fit in the power envelope. ( AMD can't just pick PC parts - I'm just suggesting similar system configurations as an example of the technology. )
The GPU
Xbox one has 12 CUs (Compute Units) at 914 MHz - 1.4 tflops, while the PS4 has 18 CUs at 800 MHz - 1.8 tflops. This part is much easier than the CPU as AMD's graphics chips have great competability between different number of CUs. Similar performance on the PC side can be found with RX 560 - it has 16 CUs at 1275Mhz - 2.6 tflops. As you can see this is quite a bit more than needed, but as with the CPU what if we down-clock the gpu: At 700Mhz it gives exactly 1.4tflops - same as Xbox One S and at 890Mhz this GPU would mach the PS4.
What is clear from this is Sony will have harder time hitting the performance target of PS4 within the power envelope and Microsoft might have an easier time as their Xbox One target is lower.
Memory
Easy - 8 Gb of GDDR5 - no point in changing anything here for Playstation and for Xbox it would be pointless to use slower memory again. This will help to have the same games that are on current platforms to run without issues.
Storage
As game sizes are hitting 100Gb and the price of SSDs is going down - I think 240Gb storage would be the minimum that they have to provide to have enough space for 3-4 games at least. Memory card slot for expanded storage is a must.
Screen
The screen should be 720p or 900p as this level of GPU would have hard time running the same games at Full HD while un-docked. The form factor of the Switch is great - so let's say 7'' Screen.So what do we end up with ?
1600x900 (900p) - 7" Touch Screen
A 4 Core / 8 Thread Ryzen @ 1.2 GHz
AMD GPU with 16 CUs @ 700Mhz
8 Gb GDDR5
240Gb SSD
Looking at the final spec of our dream console we can say that it is probably possible, but not exactly right now. It will probably be in the next 12 months as AMD is going to release it's Ryzen based APU line - this line will be the platform if Xbox One P and PS4P are to see the light of day.
